Fewer teacher vacancies don't mean the teacher supply problem is solved
New recruitment figures suggest pressures are easing. Jenni French argues the data points to a more complex reality, with persistent subject shortages, unequal recruitment, and retention challenges.
At first glance, the latest teacher recruitment data might look like good news. Secondary school job advertisements have fallen sharply and, according to the latest annual Teacher Tapp and SchoolDash report funded by Gatsby, are now at their lowest level in the nine years SchoolDash has been tracking them. Secondary adverts are down by around a quarter compared with last year and are roughly half the level seen before the pandemic, which, after several years of intense recruitment pressure, could easily be taken as a sign that the situation in schools is improving.
The report suggests something more complicated. A fall in advertised vacancies does not necessarily mean schools are well staffed, nor does it mean every department has access to suitably qualified teachers. It certainly does not mean that long-standing shortages in subjects such as physics have been resolved.
Why fewer vacancies do not tell the whole story
What appears to be happening is that the teacher labour market has slowed down. Schools are anticipating smaller pupil cohorts and tighter budgets, so many are cautious about replacing staff who leave. At the same time, fewer teachers are moving schools, and a weaker wider labour market may be reducing the number willing to change jobs or leave the profession. Fewer moves mean fewer replacement posts, and fewer replacement posts mean fewer adverts. The result is a quieter market, but a quieter market is not necessarily a healthier one.
Vacancy data captures only the posts schools choose to advertise. It does not show the posts they cannot afford to advertise, the specialist gaps they manage internally, or the compromises they make when a suitably qualified teacher is not available. Schools can absorb shortages through larger classes, reduced subject options, more teaching outside specialism, greater reliance on temporary staff, or simply stretching existing teachers further.
Teacher numbers are not the test – access to great teaching is
For Gatsby, the key question is not simply how many teachers are in the system, but whether all young people have access to high-quality, subject-specific teaching. This is particularly important in physics, which remains one of the most persistent shortage subjects in English schools. Physics graduates have strong labour market options outside teaching, and schools have struggled for many years to recruit and retain enough specialist physics teachers. Where schools cannot secure specialists, pupils may be taught by teachers whose own background is in another science, or by teachers working outside their strongest subject area. The new report is therefore a useful reminder that a fall in vacancies should not be read as a fall in need and that recruitment needs to sit alongside retention and high-quality, subject-specific professional development, including support for teachers working beyond their specialism.
It also shows that the benefits of a quieter recruitment market are not equally shared. In this year’s survey, 61% of fee-paying schools and 49% of the most affluent state schools reported appointing a strong candidate, compared with only 36% of the most disadvantaged schools. Even when recruitment looks easier overall, the schools facing the greatest challenges may still be least able to secure the teachers they need. A tight labour market can expose inequality, but a slow labour market can hide it.
The impact of teachers from overseas
The report’s findings on international recruitment are also relevant, particularly for physics. Recent increases in physics trainee numbers have been supported by a large number of overseas trainees entering teacher training. International trainees can bring strong subject knowledge, commitment and valuable experience. Gatsby’s recent work with the Association for Science Education found that teacher training providers were often positive about the quality of international physics trainees, including their subject knowledge and low drop-out rates.
However, the Teacher Tapp and SchoolDash report adds to the evidence suggesting that we should be cautious about assuming international recruitment is solving the school-level staffing problem. Most schools are not actively recruiting teachers from overseas. Schools report practical barriers including visa sponsorship costs, administrative burden and difficulty verifying overseas qualifications. If the system attracts overseas trainees but schools cannot sponsor them, or if the visa route does not align with early career teaching, then the policy will not deliver its full value.
This has become more important following changes to bursary eligibility for international trainees. Physics has continued to attract one of the highest training bursaries, and in recent years that has helped make teacher training in England more viable for some international applicants. However, changes to eligibility mean that access to bursaries for future international trainees is now restricted. This shift comes before we have a complete understanding of how many international physics trainees move successfully from training into teaching posts in English schools.
Lower turnover does not mean higher commitment
The report also highlights a broader retention concern. Teachers’ long-term commitment to the profession remains well below pre-pandemic levels, with only around six in ten now expecting to still be teaching in three years’ time, compared with around three-quarters before the pandemic. The current slowdown in recruitment may partly reflect fewer opportunities outside teaching and fewer posts to move to, but if wider economic conditions improve, and teachers who have stayed put begin to act on their dissatisfaction, schools could face renewed turnover.
Overall, these findings point to a clear conclusion: teacher supply policy cannot rely on headline vacancy numbers. For shortage subjects such as physics, the policy challenge remains acute. We need to recruit more physics teachers, including from international routes where these are effective and ethical, but we also need to retain the physics teachers already in schools, support non-specialists who are teaching physics, make the early career stage more sustainable, and improve the data on where specialist teachers are and which pupils have access to them.
Financial incentives remain part of the answer. Bursaries help attract trainees, and retention payments can help keep teachers in shortage subjects, but incentives work best when they sit within a coherent system. For international trainees, that means clear application routes, realistic information about costs, appropriate visa arrangements and support for schools to employ those who complete training.
The latest report should therefore be read as a warning against complacency. Teacher recruitment may look easier than it did two years ago, but that does not mean the underlying problem has gone away. It may simply have become less visible. The question is not just whether schools are advertising fewer vacancies, but whether every young person, in every school, has access to the specialist teachers they need.
On that test, there is still a long way to go.